NOAA warns of a 65 percent probability of an above normal 2008 hurricane season and a 25 percent probability of a near normal season.
NOAA forecasters at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center are in a continuous monitoring mode employing a dense network of satellites, land-based and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its partners.
By Gary Schmidt
May 22, 2008 22:18 PM GMT
The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued hurricane 2008 prdictions on Thursday while urging residents in vulnerable areas to be fully prepared. The 2008 Hurricane Season begins June 1. NOAA calls for considerable activity with a 65 percent probability of an above normal season and a 25 percent probability of a near normal season. This means there is a 90 percent chance of a near or above normal season. The forcast indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms which includes six to nine hurricanes and two to five category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes. This array of data supplies the information for complex computer modeling and human expertise that serves the basis for the hurricane center's track and intensity forecasts that extend out five days in advance.
The science behind the outlook is rooted in the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns as in comparison to previous seasons with similar conditions. Many combinations of named storms and hurricanes can occur for the same set of climate conditions, NOAA says. One cannot know with certainty, whether a given climate signal will be associated with several short-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity. The main factors influencing this year's seasonal outlook are the continuing multi-decadal signal - the combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995. This signal includes above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Even though the last two Atlantic hurricane seasons have been near-normal, there remains no sign the current active hurricane era has ended.
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